President-elect Donald Trump’s victory within the 2024 presidential election was the results of demographic shifts that benefited Republicans.
Exit polling by Edison confirmed that People had been extra comparable of their voting patterns this cycle than they had been divided—the anticipated extensive gaps primarily based on gender, schooling, age, and race between Republicans and Democrats did not materialize.
Trump in the end was capable of slim these gaps vastly in comparison with 2020, concentrating on financial messaging that was compelling to a broad cross part of American political society.
At present, the president-elect is projected to have carried all seven of the core swing states, bringing him as much as a complete of 312 electoral votes to Vice President Kamala Harris’s 226.
These charts present the shifts that gave Trump a second, nonconsecutive time period within the White Home.
Gender
This marketing campaign season was unusually gendered in every marketing campaign’s technique.
Harris sought to focus on feminine voters, utilizing the difficulty of abortion as a rallying level. Trump targeted extra on male voters, notably younger males, and appeared on podcasts in style with the demographic.
Thus, observers anticipated a considerable gender divergence that, in the end, didn’t materialize.
In actuality, Trump outperformed amongst each women and men, successful white males, white girls, and Hispanic males outright and rising his share amongst black males and Hispanics.
Schooling
Democrats have gained floor amongst rich, white, college-educated voters lately, and people traits continued in 2024.
This cycle, Harris gained amongst white college-educated voters, successful 17.2 p.c of whole votes forged for the presidential election from the group. President Joe Biden acquired 16.3 p.c of his votes from the group in 2020, a 0.8 level shift. That’s unsurprising, as Harris focused these voters.
Trump has additionally made positive aspects for the GOP amongst non-college educated voters throughout racial teams.
Technically, Trump additionally misplaced a degree of help from white non-college educated voters in comparison with 2020, although that’s throughout the exit ballot’s margin of error.
However the place he misplaced some amongst white voters, he gained amongst minority voters, together with each these with and with out faculty levels.
Age
Historically, younger folks have a tendency towards Democrats and older folks veer extra Republican.
That normal knowledge, nonetheless, was flipped on its head on this election: Harris underperformed with younger voters, that means these aged 18 to 29.
Whereas Trump managed to win 18- to 24-year-old voters outright, 25- to 29-year-olds barely favored Harris, bringing Trump’s whole with the group to 43 p.c—a rise of seven p.c in comparison with 2020.
On the similar time, Harris made positive aspects with older voters, successful voters aged 65 and older outright. The oldest voters diminished their help for Trump by round 3 p.c, with 45 p.c supporting the president-elect this cycle.
Race
Likewise, the Democratic coalition has traditionally relied on minority voters as a counterbalance to Republican-leaning white voters.
On this election, Trump once more received amongst white voters outright, which was essential to his sweeping victory, because the group made up almost 71 p.c of the voters. White voters backing Trump accounted for 40.5 p.c of the voters versus Harris’s 29.1 p.c.
Nevertheless, Trump additionally made essential inroads with different racial teams.
His vote share amongst blacks nudged up 1 p.c in 2024 versus 2020, pushed largely by shifts amongst black males.
Shifts had been extra pronounced amongst Hispanic voters, with whom Trump noticed a rise of 14 p.c in comparison with 2020, falling simply shy of a majority with the demographic. That shift enabled Trump to drastically improve his vote share in states equivalent to Florida and Texas, which he received by greater than 10 factors for the primary time in his political profession.
The identical development was considered amongst Asian voters, with Trump successful 39 p.c of the demographic, marking a 5 p.c improve over 2020.
Trump Good points in All States
These demographic shifts enabled Trump to extend his margins in each single U.S. state.
Apart from enabling a sweep of all seven swing states, the shifting political alignments additionally noticed Trump make positive aspects in darkish crimson and deep blue states alike.
As an example, in Florida and Ohio—as soon as the quintessential swing-states—Trump received by a greater than 10 p.c margin, the primary time any candidate has pulled off such a feat since President Ronald Reagan’s 1984 electoral landslide victory.
Swing states, by comparability, shifted lower than states that had been firmly within the GOP camp or the Democratic camp.
The chart beneath reveals how these shifts performed out.
Blue States Shifted Most
Surprisingly, states that had been safely blue in 2020—people who voted for Biden by a margin of 15 p.c or extra—shifted essentially the most in Trump’s favor.
Throughout protected blue states, Trump gained on common 7 share factors.
That shift was most seen in New York, New Jersey, and Illinois.
New York shifted a large 12 p.c in Trump’s favor, with Harris barely holding on to double-digit margins within the state at simply 11 p.c over her Republican challenger. In 2020, Biden received the state by 23 factors.
Illinois, a 17 p.c victory for Democrats in 2020, shifted 9 factors to the best, voting for Harris by simply an 8 p.c margin.
However nowhere had been these shifts extra seen than New Jersey, which Biden received by 16 p.c in 2020; this yr, Harris eked out a 5 p.c margin win—such a small margin that it locations the state firmly in potential swing-state territory in 2028.
Pink states additionally noticed shifts, however these had been much less pronounced than in protected blue states.
Within the chart beneath, we outline protected states as these with a margin of 15 p.c or extra in 2020, possible states between 5 and 15 p.c, and swing states inside 5 p.c. Along with the swing states in 2024, Florida can be thought of a swing state in our evaluation as a result of 3.3 p.c margin in 2020 election outcomes.