Europe’s largest pharmaceutical agency reported first-quarter earnings that exceeded analysts’ expectations, however lowered its full-year steering. Novo Nordisk now forecasts 2025 gross sales development between 13% and 21%, and working revenue development between 16% and 24% at fixed alternate charges (CER), down 3 and 5 share factors respectively from earlier projections.
“We have now diminished our full-year outlook because of lower-than-planned branded GLP-1 penetration, which is impacted by the speedy enlargement of compounding within the US. We’re actively centered on stopping illegal and unsafe compounding and on efforts to broaden affected person entry to our GLP-1 therapies,” chief govt, Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen, stated.
Regardless of the downgrade, Novo Nordisk’s shares rose 4.4% on the European market open. Nonetheless, the inventory stays down 26% year-to-date, in contrast with a flat efficiency by its primary US rival, Eli Lilly.
Compounding pressures
Demand for GLP-1 weight-loss medicine surged all through 2024, considerably outpacing provide. Beneath US Meals and Drug Administration (FDA) coverage, compounding pharmacies are allowed to supply copies of medicine which are in brief provide. This has enabled smaller telehealth rivals to promote cheaper, compounded variations of weight-loss therapies comparable to Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s Zepbound.
Though the FDA declared the shortages over in February, it allowed a transition interval for compounded variations till 22 Might. In response to mounting worth stress, Novo Nordisk reduce the price of Wegovy by greater than half on its on-line pharmacy, NovoCare, following an identical transfer by Eli Lilly.
“With round 1 billion individuals residing with weight problems globally and only some million on therapy, Novo Nordisk continues the worldwide roll-out of Wegovy,” the corporate acknowledged. CFO Karsten Munk Knudsen stated he expects Wegovy gross sales to speed up within the third quarter.
Income exceed expectations
Internet revenue rose 20% year-on-year to 38.8 billion Danish kroner (€5.2 billion), whereas internet gross sales elevated 18% to 78.1 billion kroner (€10.5 billion), each forward of consensus estimates. Gross sales within the firm’s core diabetes and weight problems care division climbed 19% to 73.5 billion kroner (€9.9 billion), pushed by a 65% improve in weight problems care and an 11% rise in GLP-1 diabetes drug gross sales. All figures are at CER.
Novo Nordisk additionally highlighted the completion of its REDEFINE 2 trial for CagriSema, its next-generation weight problems drug. The therapy delivered a 15.7% weight discount. Novo Nordisk expects to file for the primary regulatory approval of CagriSema within the first quarter subsequent yr. Nonetheless, the outcome, initially launched in March, disenchanted buyers, which was in need of the projected 25% weight discount. Eli Lilly launched trial outcomes for its newest weight-loss drug, retatrutide, exhibiting 24% weight reduction final yr.
“Inside R&D, we’re happy to have accomplished the final pivotal trial for our next-generation weight problems therapy, CagriSema, and to have filed for US approval of oral semaglutide 25 mg, with the potential to be the primary oral GLP-1 therapy for weight problems,” Jørgensen stated.