European equities have entered what’s traditionally essentially the most difficult stretch of the calendar yr, as August and September persistently ship the weakest returns for the area’s inventory markets.
Following a powerful first half in 2025 and a barely optimistic July, historical past means that the summer time momentum in European equities typically loses steam as August arrives.
The month is often outlined by thinner buying and selling volumes, higher market sensitivity to financial and geopolitical headlines, and a constant sample of upper volatility.
August: The weakest month for European indices
Evaluation of the previous three many years reveals a transparent seasonal downturn in August.
The EURO STOXX 50, Europe’s blue-chip benchmark, has averaged a 1.66% decline through the month over the previous 30 years, making it the worst-performing month of the yr.
It has ended August in optimistic territory solely 43% of the time, and the broader STOXX Europe 600 tells the same story.
Over the previous 24 years, this index has fallen by a median 0.7% in August, additionally with a 43% profitable ratio. Essentially the most brutal August got here in 1998, when the EURO STOXX 50 plunged 14.4%, adopted intently by 2001’s 13.79% loss.
Nation indices echo August’s destructive pattern
Zooming in on nationwide markets, the sample of August weak point is equally pronounced.
This era is the weakest month for Germany’s DAX, which posts a median decline of two.2% and finishes in optimistic territory simply 47% of the time.
In France, the CAC 40 drops by 1.47% on common in August, narrowly forward of September’s 1.49% common fall, and sees solely a 37% profitable price.
Italy’s FTSE MIB and Spain’s IBEX 35 additionally see the destructive signal, logging common August losses of 0.7% and 0.9%, respectively.
German shares: A few of the weakest August seasonality
A gaggle of Germany’s blue chips persistently present downward August bias, with a few of them marking it as their worst month of the yr, each by way of returns and win likelihood.
In line with TradingView information, a number of the hardest-hit shares embrace:
• Thyssenkrupp AG leads the decline, tumbling a median 4.6% in August with a win price of simply 30%, that means it has posted good points in solely 9 of the previous 30 years.
• BMW AG averages a 4.1% loss in August with only a 37% win price. Volkswagen AG, in the meantime, falls 3.3% and ends the month increased solely 27% of the time — proof that even automakers aren’t spared from late-summer volatility.
• Deutsche Financial institution AG, Germany’s largest lender, averages a 3.47% drop in August and matches Thyssenkrupp’s 30% win ratio.
• Utility big E.ON SE and industrial titan Siemens AG additionally really feel the seasonal drag, each slipping by almost 2%, with win charges of 37% and 40%, respectively.
• Deutsche Börse AG, operator of Germany’s inventory alternate, and shopper items agency Beiersdorf AG each see their weakest efficiency in August, falling 1.72% and 1.66% on common, with win charges of 48% and 39%, respectively.
Backside line: August’s seasonal hunch laborious to disregard
With the EURO STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 up 8% and seven%, respectively, European equities have delivered a stable year-to-date efficiency.
A lot of this rebound has come on the again of a powerful restoration from April’s tariff-induced downturn, mirroring a broader world fairness upswing.
However historical past warns that August marks a persistent seasonal gentle spot — significantly for Germany’s company heavyweights, which are inclined to underperform greater than their European friends.
From broad indices to blue-chip shares, the month reveals a constant sample of decrease returns, thinner liquidity, and heightened vulnerability to destructive information movement.
Whereas no seasonal pattern ensures future efficiency, August stays, by many measures, essentially the most difficult month for European buyers.