When Nintendo launched the Swap in 2017, it had no competitors in devoted handheld gaming, a sector it had established with the Recreation Boy in 1989 and dominated ever since. Sega had come and gone; Sony, after two decided makes an attempt with the PlayStation Moveable and PlayStation Vita, had nearly given up.
As Swap 2 nears launch in 2025, issues look somewhat completely different — however solely somewhat. The colossal success of the Swap has awoken the slumbering giants. Sony and Microsoft at the moment are reportedly getting ready devoted PlayStation and Xbox handhelds. Improbably, although, it was the PC gaming sphere that made the primary transfer. Valve led the best way with the Steam Deck in 2022, which swiftly seeded a rising ecosystem of comparable, PC-based handheld units from producers like Lenovo and Asus. After a quiet decade, non-Nintendo handheld gaming is a factor once more. And which means the Swap 2 won’t run unopposed for handheld gaming supremacy.
In a way, Nintendo is the sufferer of its personal strategic foresight. With the Swap, it was the primary to identify that the narrowing hole in processing energy between cell and at-home units had enabled a unification of handheld and residential gaming experiences. Lastly, the identical video games may work in each contexts. The Swap proved this level emphatically, and now everybody desires a bit.
However with devoted units from Sony and Microsoft nonetheless years away, for now that competitors should come from Steam Deck and the opposite PC handhelds. My colleague Chris Plante persuasively argued that these units signify Nintendo’s “largest risk within the current.” They trounce the Swap on specs and have closed the hole to modern AAA gaming within the dwelling till it’s virtually imperceptible. Software program-wise, they provide the compelling worth and staggering vary of nearly every thing on Steam — and far of PC gaming past it, in the event you’re ready to fiddle a few bit.
Photograph: Nintendo
It’s true that the Swap 2’s value and specs put it into direct competitors with the lower-end PC handhelds. At $449, it’s $50 costlier than the bottom mannequin Steam Deck. The Swap 2 is roughly comparable in energy and storage, has a a lot better display screen, and with removable controllers and a TV dock included within the value, it’s rather more versatile to make use of. The bottom mannequin of Asus’ ROG Ally handheld ($499 or thereabouts) and the brand new Lenovo Legion Go S ($549) are additionally fairly shut opponents by way of specs.
In uncooked {hardware} phrases, these are all very related units. It’s value noting that the Swap 2’s unique entry to Nvidia’s market-leading DLSS upscaling expertise ought to permit it to punch a bit above its weight class. However realistically, there’s not a lot between them.
However — and it’s a really, very massive however — evaluating the Swap 2 to the PC handhelds by working your finger down a spec sheet, or by noting that they will all play Civilization 7 and Elden Ring, doesn’t inform the entire story. Inside an fanatic bubble, PC handhelds are an enormous deal, however they don’t exist in the identical universe as Nintendo consoles. To place it bluntly, PC handhelds are nonetheless area of interest.
The Steam Deck has been an enormous success for Valve, however let’s put it in perspective. Valve has not mentioned gross sales numbers, however market analysis estimates that it has bought round 4 million Steam Decks. And Steam Deck dwarfs its competitors; the identical analysis means that, in whole, round 6 million PC handhelds have been bought within the three years because the Steam Deck went in the marketplace. Worryingly, there aren’t but indicators of sturdy development in gross sales.
Stack that up in opposition to the Swap’s 150 million models bought and the wild distinction in scale turns into evident. After all, it isn’t a straight analogous comparability. PC handhelds have solely existed for 3 years; the Swap has been round for eight years, and Nintendo has been within the handhelds enterprise for greater than 35 years. All the identical, Nintendo predicts it’s going to promote 11 million models of the growing old Swap in its present fiscal yr — greater than 5 instances the expected gross sales of PC handhelds in that point. In the meantime, analysts reckon that the Swap 2 will, by itself, outstrip the dimensions of the PC handheld market virtually instantly, with 6 to eight million models accessible at launch, and as much as 20 million gross sales in its first yr.
Photograph: Valve
Valve is an enormous participant within the recreation business, and a really wealthy firm. However it’s a newcomer to the world of client electronics retail, and it has a number of catching as much as do — if it’s even fascinated by doing it. Steam Deck isn’t accessible to buy in shops; you’ll be able to’t stroll into Walmart and choose one up. Valve is just not shopping for adverts for it on TV or at bus stops. Corporations like Lenovo and Asus have extra conventional distribution channels, however they’re tiny minnows in comparison with the advertising, retail, and distribution may of Nintendo.
There are different elements that make the PC handhelds area of interest merchandise. The person expertise of Home windows-based handhelds just like the ROG Ally and Legion Go is notoriously dangerous. Valve’s SteamOS is a lot better, however it’s nonetheless fairly far faraway from the reliability and ease provided by Nintendo and the opposite console platforms.
You can’t unbox a brand new Steam Deck, flip it on, and play a recreation immediately. It requires tinkering to get the perfect out of. Though Valve’s verification system for video games is a useful information, it’s not assured you’ll get a great, playable expertise on each recreation. The Deck can also be cumbersome and heavy. You’d by no means purchase one for a kid, or share one inside a household — it’s clearly not designed to be shared. Realistically, it stays a tricky promote for anybody who isn’t a gaming hobbyist.
There’s, reportedly, one upcoming gadget that might be able to change this narrative somewhat. Microsoft is claimed to be working with a PC handheld producer on a system that may have Xbox branding and a person interface based mostly on a brand new model of the Xbox PC app. This has the potential to be a extra user-friendly gadget that provides quick access to PC Recreation Go on the go, which might be fairly compelling. However, though Microsoft has now been making Xbox consoles for over 20 years, it has constantly struggled to make use of that have to make PC gaming extra seamless, regardless of repeated makes an attempt — and the gadget doesn’t sound like rather more than a stopgap till Microsoft’s personal devoted handheld console is prepared.
Nintendo won’t have true competitors in handhelds till its friends within the console area get entangled. Microsoft is reportedly eyeing 2027 for the discharge of its handheld Xbox. Sony’s moveable PS5 can also be mentioned to be years away, if it’s ever launched. Issues are positively heating up for Nintendo, and by the top (and even the center) of the Swap 2’s life, the hand held gaming market is certain to be a lot busier than it’s now. However for the subsequent few years, competitors for the brand new console will stay distant — at greatest.