The 2025 tennis season is barely two months previous, however there has already been a full 12 months’s value of surprises. From the controversial suspension of world No. 1 Jannik Sinner, to Madison Keys successful her first main title on the Australian Open, to a abdomen virus that took out a lot of the sector at Acapulco final week and the wild-card debacle surrounding Venus Williams, there was no scarcity of headlines.
Now the respective excursions head to the California desert for the 1000-level (the very best after majors and the year-end finals) BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, beginning off the Sunshine Double portion of the calendar with the Miami Open up subsequent. Whereas we will not get to each storyline value watching — apologies to anybody in search of ideas on who might need a heel flip like Danielle Collins did in Melbourne — these are the most important questions getting into the 2025 BNP Paribas Open earlier than the primary draw will get underway Wednesday.
Who will step up with Jannik Sinner out?
Earlier than we dig in right here, it is value noting Sinner’s unbelievable stretch for the reason that begin of 2024. In the course of the previous 14 months, the Italian has gained three main titles (2024 and 2025 Australian Open and 2024 US Open), three 1000-level occasions and the 2024 ATP Finals. He’s at the moment serving a three-month doping suspension and is out of motion till Might. And but nonetheless, he has almost a 3,000 level lead within the rankings over everybody else. He reached the semifinals at Indian Wells in 2024, took the title in Miami and would have simply been the favourite to win each.
Sinner’s absence this 12 months leaves a large alternative for a number of others — and the obvious is Carlos Alcaraz. The present world No. 3 is the two-time defending champion and appears to thrive within the California solar. He is had an inconsistent season to this point, shedding within the quarterfinals on the Australian Open and in Qatar however successful the Rotterdam title. Being at a well-recognized website like Indian Wells may very well be precisely what he must get again on monitor and take over the tour.
World No. 2 Alexander Zverev may be a contender. He misplaced to Sinner within the Australian Open remaining and has since gone 4-3 — however has gained three 1000-level hard-court titles in his profession, together with most lately on the Paris Masters in November. He is a two-time Indian Wells quarterfinalist, together with final 12 months, and is able to going even additional. Daniil Medvedev, at the moment ranked sixth, has had a difficult season and has by no means beloved the circumstances at Indian Wells (each on the court docket and with the air-con inside) however he reached the ultimate in 2023 and may all the time be thought-about a risk at hard-court occasions.
To not point out, 2022 champion and Southern California native Taylor Fritz performed the perfect tennis of his profession within the remaining months of 2024 and will probably be motivated to do properly in entrance of a house crowd and at a spot the place he is gained earlier than. He reached the ultimate on the US Open and the ATP Finals and misplaced to Sinner in each occasions, however he is confirmed he can beat virtually everybody else. He had a disappointing third spherical end on the Australian Open and needed to withdraw from Acapulco with an belly harm, but when he is wholesome, he is actually one to observe.
And, in fact, do not forget about that man named Novak Djokovic. He is nonetheless fairly good. (Extra on him beneath)
Will the season’s pattern of sudden winners proceed on the ladies’s aspect?
After a number of years of unpredictability, it regarded as if a bunch of elite gamers had emerged atop the ladies’s sport, most notably Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff. In the beginning of 2025, that trio — who’re at the moment the highest 3-ranked gamers on the earth — appeared to be the favorites for each event. The season opened with Sabalenka nabbing the trophy on the Brisbane Open and Gauff main the USA workforce over Swiatek’s Poland within the United Cup remaining.
However then the Australian Open occurred and Madison Keys, who turned 30 final month, confirmed everybody how exceptional the depth of expertise is on the WTA Tour. She had a staggering fortnight, beating Swiatek within the semifinals and two-time defending champion Sabalenka within the remaining, and dwelling as much as the potential many had seen in her properly over a decade in the past. And greater than that, it appeared to remind different gamers of their very own capabilities as properly.
Since Keys’ stunning victory in Melbourne, there was a unique champion each week, together with in the course of the two 1000-level occasions, wherein Amanda Anisimova (Doha) and 17-year-old Mirra Andreeva (Dubai) gained the most important titles of their younger careers. Different winners embrace Belinda Bencic, who lately returned from maternity depart, and Ekaterina Alexandrova, in addition to Jessica Pegula and Emma Navarro, who each collected new {hardware} on Sunday with statement-making routs within the Austin and Merida finals, respectively.
It isn’t simply that the present “Massive-ish Three” have not gained tournaments, they had been hardly even an element in the course of the Center East swing. Sabalenka gained one match in each 1000-level occasions, and Gauff was upset in her opening matches at each. Swiatek fared higher, and reached the semis in Doha and the quarters in Dubai. And if anybody is aware of how one can win at Indian Wells, it is her. She’s the defending champion and in addition gained the title in 2022. And all three will definitely be keen to show issues round and get again to their successful methods at Indian Wells.
However in fact, Keys, who hasn’t performed since Australia, is able to successful and is extra assured than ever. Others, like Anisimova, Andreeva, Pegula, Navarro and even Bencic or 2023 champion Elena Rybakina, may do it as properly. So, sure, it’ll be very fascinating and may give a real vibe test to the state of the season.
How will Novak Djokovic fare?
This could be the most important query of all getting into the event. The 24-time main champion needed to retire from his semifinal match towards Zverev on the Australian Open after the primary set because of a hamstring harm, and has performed one occasion since. Previous to the Qatar Open, Djokovic mentioned he was “virtually 100%” however after shedding within the first spherical in straight units to Matteo Berrettini, he was seen limping into the airport, sparking hypothesis about his harm. As of now, he stays within the Indian Wells draw and will probably be joined by his coach Andy Murray. Djokovic acquired a first-round bye, then will play towards both a qualifier or Nick Kyrgios.
However, and that is value mentioning, we’re speaking about Novak Djokovic right here and there is a motive he is gained 24 Slam titles and 40 Masters 1000-level trophies, together with 5 at Indian Wells. Whereas he hasn’t had the outcomes over the previous 14 months that he is turn out to be accustomed to — successful Olympic gold marked his lone title final season — he nonetheless is without doubt one of the greatest within the sport and may all the time be thought-about a authentic contender. And never that he wants any extra motivation, however one other title would make him simply the third man within the Open Period to win 100 tour-level singles trophies.
Can an American win the title?
Sure, completely. The operative phrase right here is “may,” but it surely’s potential, and possibly even sensible.
On the ladies’s aspect, there are a number of who may do it. For the primary time since 2003, there are three American ladies ranked inside the highest 5 — Gauff, Pegula and Keys — and all three can have the assist of the group and have gained 1000-level tournaments, or greater, earlier than. Navarro (No. 8), reigning Miami Open champion Danielle Collins (No. 14), and Anisimova (No. 18) are all additionally within the high 20 and may beat virtually anybody on their greatest days.
However regardless of success nearly in all places else, no American lady has gained at Indian Wells since Serena Williams in 2001. Will this be the 12 months these fortunes get reversed?
As for the boys, Fritz, the world No. 4, actually leads the cost however a number of others additionally deserve point out right here. Tommy Paul (No. 11), Ben Shelton (No. 12), and Frances Tiafoe (No. 17) thrive in entrance of the house crowds and have all been to main semifinals earlier than so know what it takes to win on an enormous stage. Reilly Opelka, the previous world No. 17 and present No. 114, continues his return from a prolonged harm absence and will additionally shock. He reached the ultimate at Brisbane to open the 12 months and recorded a win over Djokovic within the quarterfinals.
Can anybody win the elusive Sunshine Double?
Simply eleven gamers — seven males and 4 ladies — have achieved the feat. The record is actually a who’s who of tennis historical past and Djokovic, Roger Federer and Steffi Graf are the one ones who’ve achieved it a number of occasions.
Swiatek achieved it most lately, in 2022 throughout her record-setting 37-match win streak. However whereas she made it look simple on the time, it’s something however. With simply days between the ultimate in Indian Wells and the beginning of Miami, enjoying in each requires touring 2,600 miles and adapting between two completely different climates. Staying wholesome and centered is a problem for even the perfect gamers.
Alcaraz got here shut in 2023 by reaching the Miami semifinals, however merely ran out of fuel within the third set towards Sinner. He is a much more skilled participant now, and could also be higher ready if in that state of affairs at this time.
Might Alcaraz or Swiatek do it in 2025? Frankly, nobody has fairly proven the consistency this season that might be wanted to tug it off. However one event can change every part.