Game of the Year: Which of the 2024 Game Awards nominees will win?

This yr marks the tenth anniversary of The Sport Awards, and in that point Geoff Keighley’s annual occasion has established itself fairly firmly because the main awards ceremony for the sport business — the Oscars of gaming. It stays promotionally overstuffed to the purpose that it’s nonetheless arguably higher identified for trailers than awards, however that’s altering. And though its winners are usually fairly conservative, they’re broadly consultant of the essential consensus. Its voting physique consists of a variety of worldwide video games media, so the possibilities are your favourite publications’ and critics’ picks issue into The Sport Awards. (todaysviralmedia’s do.)

The highest prize of the night time is, in fact, Sport of the 12 months — and there are clear indicators of what makes a Sport of the 12 months at The Sport Awards, based mostly on a decade of information. On Nov. 18, The Sport Awards introduced the nominees for this and all the opposite classes, principally confirming these indicators. Nonetheless, it’s a very open race in 2024, with no cut-and-dried frontrunner. Beneath, after crunching numbers and taking temperatures, we choose the seemingly Sport of the 12 months winner and rank the remainder of the six nominees so as of their likeliness to win. We’ll discover out if we acquired it proper when the winner is introduced at The Sport Awards on Dec. 12.

Replace (Nov. 26): Between now and the awards ceremony, we’ll be fleshing out our TGA prognostication with predictions for the opposite classes as properly. On this first replace, we predict the winners of Video games for Impression, Unbiased Sport, Debut Indie Sport, Ongoing Sport, Cell Sport, Multiplayer, Adaptation, Most Anticipated, and Gamers’ Voice — and it’s wanting like an excellent night time for Balatro. Additionally on this replace, we’ve moved Black Delusion: Wukong up a little bit within the GOTY rating on the power of its triumph on the Golden Joystick Awards.

What’s going to win GOTY?

Why it might win: With a 94 Metascore at time of writing, Staff Asobi’s pleasant platform sport enjoys the strongest essential consensus of any sport this yr (and rightly so) bar Elden Ring’s Shadow of the Erdtree enlargement. It’s additionally technically dazzling, which is traditionally a powerful plus in GOTY consideration.

Weaknesses: Video games nominated within the Household class, as Astro Bot is, very hardly ever break via in the principle competitors. Nonetheless, it additionally scored a nomination within the Motion/Journey class, which has been the supply of a lot of previous winners.

Momentum (holding regular): Astro Bot has united a broad swath of critics and followers like no different sport this yr; its high quality is self-evident, its vibe is upbeat and completely unproblematic, and few critics are proof against its bare nostalgia attraction. At seven nominations, it’s tied with Remaining Fantasy 7 Rebirth because the most-nominated sport. In a complicated yr, it’s wanting just like the default selection, and the sport to beat to date.

The remainder of the GOTY nominees, ranked

Why it might win: The distinctive role-playing video games of Atlus’ Studio Zero have been essential darlings for a very long time, however Persona 5 (which was nominated for GOTY and gained Greatest RPG in 2017) propelled them to a brand new stage of recognition and acclaim. Now Metaphor is right here to journey that wave. With stable sport mechanics, sturdy storytelling, and memorable characters in a popular style, this might be the second Atlus’ model of RPGs outshines style stalwart Remaining Fantasy. Regardless of not having Persona model recognition, it’s already Atlus’ fastest-selling sport, too.

Weaknesses: Regardless of their rising reputation, Atlus’ video games nonetheless function in additional of an increasing area of interest than within the mainstream, and the old-school turn-based fight is a turn-off for some (although you might need mentioned comparable about final yr’s winner, Baldur’s Gate 3).

Momentum (barely 📉): Metaphor’s Metascore has settled at an incredible 94, and it’s such a considerable sport that almost all critics who dedicated to it are nonetheless deep within the weeds, discovering the scrumptious complexities of its late-game battle system. It has six nominations, second solely to Astro Bot and Remaining Fantasy 7 Rebirth. However now that public voting enters the combo, its barely much less broad attraction may damage it.

Why it might win: As a giant manufacturing from a well-known sequence in a popular style, with sturdy story and efficiency parts and a 90-plus Metacritic score, Remaining Fantasy 7 Rebirth has no peer this yr. The sport additionally advantages from rabid fan assist within the PlayStation neighborhood (it’s a PS5 unique), and it gained Most Anticipated in 2023.

Weaknesses: Gross sales have been barely underwhelming, in line with writer Sq. Enix itself, and the essential consensus round it’s not fairly as unanimous as that 92 Metascore would recommend.

Momentum (barely 📈): For some time it appeared outmaneuvered by Metaphor: ReFantazio’s recency bias and higher essential cred, however Rebirth has bounced again with a powerful set of nominations, together with in the important thing Sport Course, Efficiency, and Narrative classes. It is going to seemingly profit from assist within the public vote, too.

Why it might win: This Chinese language action-adventure is a giant technical showpiece in a popular style, and it appears to have sturdy widespread assist: In GOTY discussions on-line, it is likely one of the two most-mentioned video games, alongside FF7 Rebirth. Despite the fact that the general public vote solely counts for 10% of the ultimate vote, these vocal followers are positive to rally round it.

Weaknesses: With an 81 Metascore, Black Delusion: Wukong is on the decrease finish of essential consensus in relation to Sport of the 12 months nominees. And whereas it’s an enormous vendor, a lot of its viewers appears to be in China, which solely has a small presence on the seen voting jury. Developer Sport Science is politically controversial, which could deter some voters, too.

Momentum (📈 from No. 6): Wukong is a real darkish horse, overcoming a measure of essential snobbery to earn China its first GOTY nomination and delight its legion of followers. That fanbase is clearly activated sufficient to push it to a shock win within the Final Sport of the 12 months class on the 100% public-voted Golden Joystick Awards.

Why it might win: By way of indie darlings, poker roguelike Balatro is correct up there with the likes of Animal Properly and UFO 50, with a 90 Metascore. It’s additionally extra extensively and constantly performed — not solely is it widespread, however the individuals who prefer it are in all probability nonetheless taking part in it, and unlikely to cease earlier than voting. It is perhaps the stickiest sport of the yr.

Weaknesses: It’s a purely systemic card sport with zero narrative parts, one thing that doesn’t traditionally go over properly at The Sport Awards. There’s additionally a query mark over how broad its worldwide attraction is, an necessary issue for TGA’s various voting jury.

Momentum (📉 from No. 4): Balatro’s handy new cellular model has arrived on the excellent second to remind the jury why they couldn’t cease taking part in it again in February. And it has overperformed when it comes to nominations, with 5 beneath its belt — together with in Sport Course, the place video games of its kind hardly ever if ever seem. To not be dominated out.

Why it might win: Shadow of the Erdtree is a serious enlargement to the sport that gained GOTY in 2022. It’s additionally the only best-reviewed launch of the yr, nonetheless within the prime spot on Metacritic’s record, though Astro Bot and Metaphor have since equalized with it. The reverence folks have for Elden Ring and the FromSoftware challenge basically remains to be a pressure to be reckoned with.

Weaknesses: It’s an enlargement. Its eligibility for Sport of the 12 months got here as a shock to some members of the voting jury — however setting that apart, the notion of it as one thing further, slightly than a completely new work, will certainly maintain it again.

Momentum (📉 from No. 5): Erdtree has secured 4 nominations, together with for Greatest Function-Taking part in Sport, and muscled its manner a lot additional towards the entrance of the pack than we thought potential for a DLC.

What’s going to win the opposite classes?

There’s little or no probability that LocalThunk isn’t taking residence the award for Greatest Indie Sport on Dec. 12. It stands to cause that the one indie sport to crack into Sport of the 12 months can have sufficient assist from the jury to prime the indie class: Each time an indie sport has been nominated for GOTY earlier than — Inside in 2016, Celeste in 2018, Hades in 2020, and Stray in 2022 — it’s gone this fashion. Chalk this one up for Balatro.

Right here’s one other Balatro win you may lock in right away. Should you assume the jury may really feel motivated to unfold the love and award, say, Animal Properly on this class, assume once more. Each time the eventual Unbiased Sport winner has been nominated for Debut as properly, it’s gained each: Cuphead in 2017, Disco Elysium in 2019, Kena: Bridge of Spirits in 2021, and Stray in 2022. As soon as once more, the precedents couldn’t be extra clear.

Video games for Impression is likely one of the hardest classes to foretell — partially as a result of it’s so poorly understood. TGA defines it as “for a thought-provoking sport with a pro-social which means or message,” nevertheless it’s as much as the jury to interpret what this implies and how you can quantify it. There’s loads of pedigree within the lineup: the Life Is Unusual sequence is a two-time winner of this award, Neva developer Nomada Studio has gained it earlier than with Gris, and the primary Hellblade gained in 2017. Nearer the Distance is the type of shifting, private story that the jury tends to favor. However I’m predicting Hellblade 2 will win for the straightforward cause that it’s in all probability probably the most recognizable title to the biggest variety of jury voters.

The Sport Awards’ most steady class, supposed to reward live-service video games, settled down a bit after 2023’s shock win for interloper Cyberpunk 2077. Fortnite and FF14 have each gained it twice, whereas Future 2 is on its sixth nomination with no win. However I feel the jury shall be eager to select a contemporary new entrant, and so they can vote for Helldivers 2 in Multiplayer. Diablo 4 has an excellent story this yr, with each its game-redefining Loot Reborn season and a powerful enlargement in Vessel of Hatred, so it’s my prediction.

I can’t see the jury passing up the chance to reward some of the sensational breakout successes of the yr, Helldivers 2. The remainder of the sphere appears to be like both staid or incidental subsequent to Arrowhead Sport Studios’ viral hit, and the TGA voting jury loves to select a co-op sport for Greatest Multiplayer when one is nominated.

The identical logic that makes Balatro an inevitable winner within the Unbiased class additionally applies right here. With sufficient assist to get nominated for GOTY, it should absolutely stroll a much less necessary class — and this one is much less aggressive than the indie awards. Mark my phrases, Balatro goes residence with three awards.

The race for this award, for the very best adaptation of video video games in different media, is unquestionably between Prime Video’s Fallout and Netflix’s League of Legends-based animated sequence Arcane. Arcane is the extra critically acclaimed of the 2, however Fallout is the highest-profile, and has in all probability been watched by probably the most jury members. In a good race, Fallout is my prediction.

This award is much more locked-in than Balatro’s Greatest Indie win. On this 100% fan-voted class, there isn’t a probability that Grand Theft Auto 6 doesn’t prevail. In reality, Rockstar might in all probability take residence its 2025 GOTY award now, as properly — if solely it might assure the sport is definitely popping out subsequent yr.

Gamers’ Voice is one other 100% fan-voted class, and one for which there aren’t any nominees but — a brief record of 30 video games shall be revealed on Dec. 2, which shall be whittled down to 5, then one winner over three rounds. As proved by its shock Sport of the 12 months win in one other public vote on the Golden Joystick Awards, Black Delusion: Wukong has probably the most activated fan base of any of this yr’s frontrunning video games, so it appears destined to win.

The Sport Awards winners shall be revealed throughout the present on Dec. 12.