European equities have been having fun with a powerful 2025 to date, with main indices capping the primary half of the 12 months in constructive territory and outperforming their US counterparts. However as buyers weigh whether or not it’s time to lock in good points or experience the momentum, historical past suggests July is perhaps the month to remain invested.
In reality, July stands out as probably the most bullish month of the 12 months for European shares.
Backed by twenty years of knowledge, the month not solely delivers higher-than-average returns but additionally does so with outstanding consistency.
July: The perfect-performing month for European indices
Take the EURO STOXX 50, the area’s blue-chip benchmark. Over the previous 20 years, it has posted a median July return of 1.94%, ending the month in constructive territory 70% of the time. That’s the strongest efficiency of any month within the 12 months.
July 2009 was significantly stellar, with the index rallying 9.8%, adopted by strong good points of seven.3% in 2022, 6.56% in 2010, and 6.36% in 2013.
In fact, not each July has been easy crusing. The worst declines got here in 2011, when the index dropped 6.3%, and in 2007, with a 3.9% loss. Nonetheless, the broader sample factors to July as a month that favours the bulls.
The STOXX Europe 600, which gives a wider snapshot of the area’s fairness market, echoes this pattern.
The index has averaged a 2.04% return in July, once more with a 70% win ratio, marking it as probably the most dependable month of the calendar 12 months.
Zooming in on nationwide indices, the sample holds. France’s CAC 40 has seen common July good points of 1.8% with a 65% win fee, making it its greatest month of the 12 months.
Germany’s DAX comes shut, with July returns averaging 1.91%. Whereas not the strongest — November and April publish increased good points —, July stays among the many top-performing months.
Italy’s FTSE MIB stands out, rising 1.78% on common in July with a 70% success fee — increased than another month for the Milan index.
Shares with standout July monitor information
Seasonal energy doesn’t cease on the index degree. In line with knowledge from Seasonax, quite a few European corporations constantly ship strong July returns over the previous twenty years.
Among the many prime performers:
- Credit score Agricole: A July star, averaging a 4.85% achieve with a 73% win fee — the perfect month of the 12 months for the French lender.
- BNP Paribas: One other banking large shining in summer time, with common returns of three.79% and a 70% win fee.
- Societe Generale: Rounding out the trio of French banks, it posts 3.68% on common in July with the identical 70% success ratio.
Luxurious additionally comes into play:
- LVMH and Hermès common July good points of three.23% and three.19% respectively, every with sturdy win charges (70% and 65%).
- Kering sees comparable energy with 3.64%, although with a decrease 55% win fee.
Elsewhere in industrials and tech:
- Airbus: The French industrial powerhouse confirmed common good points of three.9% and a outstanding 80% win fee in July. It’s the second-best month after January, however much more constant.
- SAP SE: The German software program agency sees July as its greatest month too, averaging 2.98% with a 65% win fee.
- Continental AG and Carl Zeiss Meditec additionally publish common July returns above 4%, with sturdy seasonal indicators.
Backside line: A seasonal tilt value noting
Whereas previous efficiency by no means ensures future outcomes, July’s monitor file for European equities stands out as a recurring shiny spot.
From banks to luxurious and industrial names, many sectors have traditionally benefited from a summer time tailwind.
For buyers weighing their subsequent transfer, seasonality isn’t every little thing — however it may simply be a cause to control Europe this July.
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