The US job market stayed resilient in February, though there have been rising considerations of the results of US president Donald Trump’s new insurance policies concerning the federal workforce and international tariffs.
US employers added a 151,000 jobs final month, although unemployment rose barely to 4.1%. This was a rise from a revised 125,000 in January. Nevertheless, the determine missed expectations with 160,000 new jobs anticipated.
The variety of Individuals with out jobs elevated by 203,000 in February.
Extra jobs had been added to the finance, healthcare, warehousing and transport sectors, whereas 10,000 jobs had been slashed within the federal authorities, which was the best quantity since June 2022.
Nevertheless, the outlook continues to be unsure as US president Donald Trump continues to threaten tariffs on the EU, after just lately imposing 25% tariffs on each Mexico and Canada, and rising tariffs on China to twenty%.
Trump has additionally revealed plans to restructure the federal workforce, in addition to deport tens of millions of immigrants, though consultants do not anticipate these federal job cuts to have an excessive amount of of an affect till the March non-farm payroll report.
The US job market has been significantly sturdy within the final yr, regardless of ongoing excessive rates of interest and sticky-high inflation.
“That is as boring as non-farms will get, however no information is sweet information for the greenback after a bruising week. Whereas training and healthcare offered the majority of the hires as soon as once more fairly than the cyclical industries buyers actually wish to see, it is a strong determine. Nothing to see right here, and no cause to press forward with the US slowdown narrative primarily based on this report,” mentioned Kyle Chapman, FX markets analyst at Ballinger Group.
He continued: “However the worst might be but to come back. A cocktail of shocks is being thrown on the US financial system: the top of Biden-era stimulus, historic coverage uncertainty curbing hiring and funding selections, commerce wars, and DOGE’s assault on the federal authorities and its contractors.”
Chapman highlighted that February was too quickly to see the total impact of those shocks, however that they’re prone to be felt extra within the coming months.
“The one manner out is for Trump to present us some certainty or for confidence to rebound, and that’s not one thing I see coming any time quickly,” he mentioned.
Chapman additionally identified that US rates of interest will possible be lower by 75bps this yr.